Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement and Disagreements with Azerbaijan: A View from Baku

The harbinger of disagreement between the two countries was the unofficial visit of Turkish President Gul to Yerevan for the match between the teams of the two countries in 2008. After that, the two countries began to rapidly develop relations, namely, Turkey unilaterally expressed a determination to open the Turkish-Armenian border, closed since March 1993, after Armenian troops occupied Kelbajar, by an Azerbaijani district. Thus far, Ankara has stated that before the liberation of occupied Azerbaijani territories, Turkey will not open the border.



However, Turkey's foreign policy began to change. Adopting a course of becoming a regional power, Turkey has decided to mend relations with its neighbors. To improve relations with Armenia, it has elected the formula: "from zero relationship to zero problems." The main issues that Turkey wishes to solve with regard to Armenia, is the Armenian position in relation to "the events of 1915" in the Ottoman Empire, which they consider the genocide of their people, and the territorial claims of Armenia towards Turkey.



Turkey believes that in the case of open borders, rapid relations will develop between the two countries, including economic ones. Over time, close relations with Armenia are to force that country to reconsider its demands in relation to Turkey.


This position of Turkey has been badly received in Azerbaijan. In anticipation, by April 24, the date which is considered a day of remembrance of victims in 1915, it is assumed that Turkey will open its borders with Armenia. For this reason, the reaction in Azerbaijan has been very sharp. It could not help but be noticed in the official capital Ankara. After that, the prime-minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Baku. He assured Azerbaijan that without progress on the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Turkey will not open its borders with Armenia. The same assurance was made by the Turkish president, Abdullah Gul.



In September 2009, it became known that between Turkey and Armenia, they were expected to sign two protocols, according to which, diplomatic relations should be established between the two countries and borders would be opened between them. Trusting the statements made by Turkish officials, the reaction in Azerbaijan has been restrained.



However, the surge of controversy erupted again during the re-match between Turkey and Armenia in Bursa. At that time, the Azerbaijani flag was barred from the stadium. Flags gathered at the entrance to the stadium. On Azerbaijani TV channels, images were shown where Azeri flags were thrown in a box, which had an image, similar to the toilet. The reaction in Azerbaijan was acute. In response, in Baku, at the Martyrs' Alley, where Turkish soldiers rest who gave their lives for the liberation of Baku in 1918, Turkish flags were lowered.



The scandal was settled only after the Baku visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu, and delegations of deputies in both countries. In Turkey, the culprits who negligently treated the flag of Azerbaijan,were punished.



On October 10, 2009, the protocol was signed in Zurich by the Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Armenia, establishing diplomatic relations between the two countries and creating the possibility of the future border opening. Both protocols will enter into force two months after ratification by the legislatures of both states. However, both parliaments have not ratified the protocols yet. Turkey argues that the ratification may be possible if in the first stage, Armenia will release five districts adjacent to the Nagorno-Karabakh districts, also occupied by Armenia.


In turn, Armenia reacted negatively to the demands of Turkey, explaining that these conditions shouldn’t be referred to as requirements. In addition, Armenia believes that the borders were closed unilaterally, and therefore, Turkey must open them without additional requirements.



Azerbaijan has shown restraint in relation to the signing of the protocols, fully trusting in the words, the data from the highest representatives of the authorities in Turkey. At the moment, there are no serious disagreements between Azerbaijan and Turkey.



On December 9, 2009, the Turkish Prime Minister visited the United States. During the meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama, the talks turned to the topic of the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh. Prime Minister Erdogan appealed to President Obama so that the U.S. would intervene in the situation around Karabakh. Turkey wants the release of the five occupied areas before the opening of the border with Armenia. 



It is worth examining the reasons for disagreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey's policy in the region. It's no secret that for Turkey, it was unexpected. The reasons for this were several. First and foremost, Azerbaijan believes that the process of rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia should be taking into account the Nagorno-Karabakh process. Since 1993, the condition for opening the border was liberating territories. In 2008, this situation has somewhat changed. That is why in April 2008, in different layers of society in Azerbaijan, there were protests against possible action by Turkey. In Baku, it is believed that public outcry stopped Turkey in April, that it was ready to open the border. This was followed by Erdogan's pledge not to open the border until there is  progress in the Karabakh issue.



The second misunderstanding between the parties was held on the thesis of Turkey, that Azerbaijan has no clear policy in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, and that is why Turkey is taking steps to change the status quo in the region. In turn, the Azerbaijani side expressed the view that the proposal is based on the fact that Turkey itself is not clearly represented on the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh and the region as a whole.



Azerbaijan has repeatedly tried to change the situation in a military way, until 1994, as by negotiation. In 1999, some agreement could have been reached. However, the terrorist act in the Armenian parliament stopped the process; key actors were shot. It became clear that the only pressure on Armenia to solve the problem of Karabakh was impossible. The third party countries, primarily Russia, are interested in the Karabakh problem. This country does not want conflict resolution in favor of one party or another. Russia tries to maintain the current state of affairs, thus able to pressure both Azerbaijan and Armenia. That is why Azerbaijan is unable to resolve the conflict in its favor at the moment. Therefore, Azerbaijan has chosen a tactic of economic weakening for Armenia, namely the maintenance of the embargo against the country and the implementation of regional projects, in which Armenia would not be permitted. It was such with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline. The next project on the stage is the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars. However, the possible opening of borders with Turkey would lead to the fact that the economic pressure on Armenia by Azerbaijan would be weakened.


In addition, is Azerbaijan skeptical considering the possibility of improving relations between Turkey and Armenia in the case of opening borders? The reason is that Armenia is heavily dependent on Russia, as well as from its Diaspora, and they determine the strategy of its foreign policy.



Recent events show that to understand in Turkey, to change relations with Armenia, as well as make progress in the Karabakh problem, it is necessary to negotiate with Russia. That is why at the meeting with Obama, Erdogan insisted on the active U.S. action against Russia and Armenia. Time will tell if that lies in the best interests of the United States. However, we can see that if there is no progress in the Karabakh problem, the protocols signed between Turkey and Armenia will not be ratified.
Sunday, 27 December 2009

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